A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
